Carney Signals Controlled Immigration Increase Ahead

Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada’s immigration system is back under control. He signaled the government is now weighing when to pursue a controlled increase in the country’s population. Carney made the comments in a recent interview, as the federal government prepares its next Immigration Levels Plan for 2027 through 2029. No changes to current targets have been made, and any new numbers will only be confirmed when the plan is tabled in Parliament on or before November 1.

Mark Carney said: "Canada’s immigration system is 'back under control' after several years of reductions that followed the post-pandemic population surge." He added, "The question now is when to pursue a 'controlled increase' in the country’s population."

Opposition Reaction

The Conservative Party’s immigration critic, MP Michelle Rempel Garner, blasted the prime minister’s statement. She said Carney has no plan to clear hundreds of thousands of asylum claims. Rempel Garner also claimed he has no plan to remove millions of non-citizens in the country without a legal right to be there, citing migrants who overstayed their visas as an example. She argued it is becoming evident that the government cannot accurately track how many non-citizens are in the country or if they have left.

Future Immigration Plans

The upcoming Immigration Levels Plan will set permanent and temporary resident targets for 2027, 2028, and 2029. It will determine the total number of permanent residents Canada admits each year and how those spaces are divided among economic, family, and humanitarian programs. The current plan, released in November 2025, holds permanent resident admissions flat at 380,000 for each of 2026, 2027, and 2028.

The current plan also projects new temporary resident arrivals and includes a goal of reducing the temporary resident population to less than 5 per cent of Canada’s total population by the end of 2027. It contains one-time initiatives to transition approximately 115,000 protected persons and up to 33,000 temporary workers already in Canada to permanent residence.

Current Immigration Context

Recent data shows a significant slowdown in population growth. Canada’s population reached an estimated 41,798,407 on July 1, 2026. This was an increase of just 189,425 people, or 0.5 per cent, over the previous year-the smallest July-to-July increase since 1944/1945. There were 2,779,774 non-permanent residents in Canada on that date, representing 6.7 per cent of the population. This number marked a decline of 154,614 from July 2025, the largest July-to-July drop since 1971/1972. The temporary resident share has fallen from a peak of 7 per cent in October 2024 but remains above the government’s 5 per cent goal.

In 2025/2026, 368,224 new permanent immigrants arrived. The average age of Canada’s population is 42.1 years, with seniors making up 20 per cent. Policy experts have urged further action. In August 2026, the C.D. Howe Institute urged Ottawa to make deeper cuts to temporary resident numbers and improve tracking of when temporary residents leave, noting a lack of reliable data on people whose study or work permits have expired. Meanwhile, the inventory for applications claiming Canadian Citizenship by Descent at Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada stands at more than 136,000 and is rapidly increasing.

The next Immigration Levels Plan will be tabled in Parliament, which will determine the future of immigration in Canada.