RBC Report Urges Shift in Canada's Express Entry Strategy
A Royal Bank of Canada report argues Canada's immigration strategy has become too reactive, damaging predictability.
Canada must rethink how it selects immigrants to stay competitive, according to a new report from the Royal Bank of Canada. The bank argues the system has been damaged by a cycle of rapid expansion followed by sudden restrictions, creating uncertainty.
RBC questions the federal government's increasing use of Express Entry to select immigrants based on specific occupations. Instead, the report advocates for a greater emphasis on candidates with strong overall human capital, such as education, language skills, and work experience. This shift would see provincial programs take more responsibility for filling immediate local job vacancies.
From Rapid Growth to Sudden Restrictions
Canada pursued aggressive immigration growth after the COVID-19 pandemic to address labour shortages. RBC states the country added roughly three million migrants in the three years after pandemic restrictions ended. The temporary resident population grew particularly fast, rising from less than three percent of the population before the pandemic to 7.6 percent in 2024.
This growth helped employers but coincided with intense pressure on housing and public services. Ottawa's response was to tighten several programs and attempt to reduce the temporary resident population. RBC criticizes the speed of this reversal, warning that constant policy changes undermine the predictability needed by businesses and prospective immigrants.
International Student Policy Instability
The instability is clear in the international student program. RBC says these students have faced more than 25 policy changes in about two years. These include a study permit cap and tighter rules for post-graduation work permits.
The consequences extend beyond immigration figures. "The post-secondary education sector has lost more than 20,000 jobs as international enrolment has fallen," the report notes. This experience shows the risks of letting numbers expand too quickly before imposing major restrictions.
The Debate Over Express Entry's Purpose
RBC's analysis raises a fundamental question about the Express Entry system. Introduced in 2015, it was designed to select candidates most likely to succeed economically based on Comprehensive Ranking System scores. Historically, the highest-scoring candidates received invitations.
Now, Ottawa increasingly uses category-based selection to prioritize candidates with specific occupations or characteristics. RBC questions this shift from selecting the best overall candidates to selecting workers needed at a particular moment.
The Argument for Human Capital
There is a strong economic case for prioritizing human capital. Canada cannot know which occupations will face shortages decades from now. Technology and economic shocks can transform labour markets rapidly.
A worker chosen for a current shortage might enter a very different job market later. Candidates with strong language skills and transferable experience may be better positioned to adapt. A points-based system selects people with characteristics that give them a strong chance of adapting to future economic demands.
The Role for Provinces and Targeted Draws
Ottawa's targeted approach also has advantages. It allows the government to address immediate needs in sectors like healthcare and skilled trades, and to pursue goals like increasing French-speaking immigration.
RBC suggests provinces may be better placed to identify specific labour shortages. Labour needs are rarely uniform across the country. Under a clearer division, Express Entry could focus on high-human-capital candidates, while Provincial Nominee Programs target regional occupational needs.
Federal consultations on 2027 Express Entry categories closed recently, showing how far the system has evolved. Ottawa increasingly sees it as a direct tool for economic priorities, but the debate over its core purpose continues.
